John Sammarco, Author at Definitive

Monty Python Had It Right: “I’m Not Dead!”

John Sammarco on November 2, 2017

I had the opportunity to attend a conference last week on big data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence that brought back images from Monty Python and the Holy Grail. The Governor of Virginia, Terry McAuliffe, gave a rousing keynote speech on how well the Commonwealth of Virginia is doing in autonomous vehicles, cybersecurity, vineyards, and even microbreweries. Then, the panelists came out and clanged the proverbial bell much like the knight, shouting, “Bring out your dead, bring out your dead,” waiting for the humans to be thrown on the back of the cart.

As one man was being carried over the shoulders of another, he said, “I’m not dead, I’m getting better.” The reply given to the knight was: “Yes, he is,” and then the man told the one he was carrying, “Oh, don’t be such a baby!”

This is the role that human judgment is being put in. They want us to believe that the robots have won. They want us to stop trusting our instincts, ignore our knowledge and wisdom, and just trust the damn algorithms.

A Time to Thrive

Look, I don’t want to be the “Debbie Downer” at the party, but I want to remind you who wrote those algorithms — humans. I’ll be the first to agree that more data, better data, and “big data” can be extremely beneficial to decision-making, but it is not sufficient by itself. Big data can help inform the problem statement or decision goal, it can help shape decision criteria, and it can uncover alternatives that you didn’t even know existed. However, the role of human judgment will remain essential to decision-making because we set the goals, we weight the decision criteria, we place a value on the data – and we write the algorithms. With more data available than ever before, the value of human judgment is going to increase, not decrease. It is not going to die, but rather, it will thrive.

Do you want your doctor to be better informed with big data and then use his/her judgment, or do you want a machine to diagnose you and determine your treatment? Do you want your financial advisor to have access to the best data available and then use his/her judgment on which investments to make, or do you want their system to use the past to predict future performance? Do you want your autonomous car to react to an empty plastic bag like it would to a toddler crossing the street, or would you prefer to have some computer assistance while using your own judgment? Do you want your politicians to be selected based on the polling, or would you prefer to vote?

Let’s remember that this country built the world’s greatest economy in 200 years with American ingenuity and know-how, fueled by business instinct and entrepreneurial spirit. Let’s not throw the human on the cart; he’s not dead!

John Sammarco has thirty-five years of experience leading, managing, and consulting to top public and private sector organizations, and has over twenty years of experience in facilitating complex group decisions. John founded Definitive Business Solutions in 2003, which provides world-class group decision-making solutions to increase efficiency, boost ROI, and reduce risk associated with business and technology investments. In 2016, John developed Definitive Pro™, which helps groups build consensus and make multi-criteria decisions.

Media Advisory

John Sammarco on October 23, 2017

Definitive Business Solutions, Inc. to showcase Definitive Pro

Definitive Business Solutions, Inc. to showcase Definitive Pro™ at WTS2017

WHAT:

The fourth annual Washington Technology Showcase 2017

WHO:

Terry McAuliffe, the 72nd Governor of Virginia
Richard Byrne, SVP for Programs and Technology, MITRE
Dawn Halfaker, President and CEO, Halfaker and Associates, LLC
Chuck Howell, Chief Engineer, Intelligence Programs and Integration, MITRE
John R. Sammarco, President, Definitive Business Solutions, Inc.

WHEN:

Wednesday, October 25, 2017
7:30 AM – 12:00 PM

WHERE:

MITRE Corporation
7515 Colshire Dr,
McLean, VA 22102

WHY:

The WTS2017 emphasizes the National Capital area’s culture of technology innovation and leadership. This conference also highlights Washington’s unique competitive advantage for commercial technology companies: access to senior government decision makers, investment professionals, and C-suite corporate leadership. The conference will begin with a keynote address from Governor McAuliffe. The event will continue with moderated panel discussions composed of subject matter experts and industry leaders. Following each panel, there will be brief introductions by firms working in that sector. WTS2017 concludes with innovative product demonstrations from technology leaders, including Definitive’s Definitive Pro™ decision support solution, which uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to solve complex business decisions through an anytime / anywhere / any device approach.

HOW:

For interviews or additional information please contact Kami Cleary, (301) 351-5816, or kcleary@conveyancemarketinggroup.com

Founded in 2003, Definitive Business Solutions (Definitive) provides world-class group decision support solutions that help our clients increase efficiency, boost ROI, and reduce risk associated with business and technology investments. Definitive has provided group decision support solutions and strategic consulting services to leading companies and federal agencies.

Using Decision Models for Multi-Criteria Decision-Making

John Sammarco on October 20, 2017

Buying a new home, relocating to a new city, making a healthcare decision for an aging family member – these are all multi-criteria decisions that can be complex and stressful when there are only one or two decision-makers. Presume for a moment that you and ten members of your extended family need to make a group decision. Better yet, not one of the decisions, but all of the decisions – by next week. Are you feeling the anxiety yet? This is what it can feel like during budget formulation time at a federal agency, when there are many competing priorities, differing views, and a sense of urgency.

As I mentioned in our last blog, budget formulation is best managed using a defined and transparent process. A key component of that process is the use of a decision model (also referred to as a scoring model). A decision model facilitates the evaluation and prioritization of alternatives against a set of weighted criteria.

What is a Decision Model?

Decision models consist of a goal, weighted criteria, measures (optional), and associated rating scales. They are designed to help decision-makers comprehensively and consistently assess and score the business value of competing alternatives that contribute to the decision goal.

Advantages of Decision Models

Decision models have distinct advantages over single metric prioritization techniques such as Return on Investment (ROI), to include:

Balancing multiple quantitative and qualitative factors
Ensuring a comprehensive assessment of each alternative
Promoting cost vs. benefit analyses
Providing better decision justification
Enabling quick-reprioritization in response to changing business conditions

Decision Models for Budget Formulation

Regarding IT budget formulation, the weighted criteria in a decision model usually consist of strategic objectives, and the alternatives are often potential projects, programs, or enterprise initiatives. We have found that 4-7 strategic objectives are typically sufficient for most organizations to conduct a thorough and rich analysis of the alternatives. Often, the strategic objectives can be drawn directly from the organization’s strategic plan.

Depending on the complexity of the criteria, it may or may not be necessary to establish measures for each criterion, as the rating scales can be applied directly to the criteria in many situations. The rating scales, and supporting definitions, provide the basis for alternative scoring.

Does your organization make budget formulation decisions that would benefit from the use of a decision model?

When Should Leaders Own a Decision and When Should They Delegate?

John Sammarco on October 19, 2017

Leaders earn their keep by making smart decisions. But sometimes the smartest decision is to delegate that decision to someone else. Every decision fits somewhere along a risk continuum. An ugly shade of green in the hallway is not necessarily going to damage the brand, but an ill-timed acquisition might—just as hiring a single underwhelming employee will have fewer consequences than the decision to outsource a functional area for twelve global offices.

Group Decision Support for Agency Budget Formulation

John Sammarco on October 10, 2017

Over the last few years, the compliance-driven “slice of the budget pie” has grown considerably in government agencies. In the good ole days, we contended with the classic trade-off of how much should be spent on new initiatives and enhancements versus operations and maintenance (O&M). The more efficiency that we could achieve in O&M, the more financial and human resources would be available to do new things and address new mission needs.

Now, after decades of unyielding growth in laws and regulations and the ever-increasing and changing cyber-security threats, agencies are now faced with carving a larger portion of the budget pie for compliance-related initiatives. The 800-lb. compliance gorilla has a seat at the table and he has an insatiable appetite for pie. This places greater pressure on the budget and makes the need to prioritize competing projects and initiatives greater than ever.

Balancing the Competing Needs and Priorities of a Civilian Federal Agency

At one such federal agency, we have given first preference to O&M work, which is defined as primarily “keeping the lights on” and “break-fix”. That portion of the pie includes a significant amount of proactive O&M endeavors, such as technology refreshes, that need to be included to avoid outages and meet service level agreements. We then give second preference to compliance tasks, which come to us as external requirements from a host of sources (e.g., laws, regulations, departmental policy, OMB guidance, etc.).

Even through compliance-driven work is treated as a mandate, this portion of the pie still needs to be assessed and prioritized as there are a wide range of discretionary decisions that still need to be made on compliance requirements. For one, there are multiple alternatives and approaches to achieving compliance on most requirements, each with different costs, timelines, and risks, so they should be evaluated and prioritized a group of stakeholders.

In addition, everything can’t be done at once – so there is a risk exposure analysis to be performed to determine when compliance projects and initiatives can and should be started. This analysis is critical to ensuring that the compliance items presenting the most risk to the agency are getting the top priority.

Finally, after O&M and compliance needs have been planned for, the remainder of the budget is allocated to further enabling the business (i.e., fulfilling the mission). Here, the evaluation and prioritization process uses a decision model (which is the subject of my next blog) that includes weighted criteria, such as:

Delivering new and enhanced end user capabilities
Improving efficiency and effectiveness
Enhancing the customer experience
Increasing the quality of information, analytics, and reporting

Balancing the O&M, compliance, and business needs of a federal agency or any large enterprise requires working across functional lines using a structured and defined process that can handle multiple decision criteria, numerous stakeholders, and a lengthy list of alternatives (see our last blog, here).

Defining the Decision-Making Process and Making It Transparent

Defining the decision-making process is crucial to budget formulation and execution. Good leaders define, document, and publish their process for making decisions – particularly those of a recurring nature. They ensure the process conforms to existing governance policy, provides a foundation for standard operating procedures (SOPs), and lays the groundwork for potential process automation. By demystifying how decisions are made, the organization can better align its work so that it can feed into the decision-making process and minimize the amount of “decision swirl” that comes when a decision process is unknown, in flux, or does not have a finite beginning or an end. A well-communicated decision process is particularly necessary when the decisions being made require the support of others to implement.

A general decision-making process flow, such as the one below, can be tailored and integrated into an existing business process, and then published to the organization.

In the public sector, there is not only a business benefit to defining, documenting, and publishing processes for making decision, but also laws and regulations that require it. In state and local government, sunshine laws require openness in government or business, and make meetings, records, votes, deliberations and other official actions available for public observation, participation, and/or inspection. In federal government, the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) grants the public access to information possessed by government agencies, unless it falls under one of nine exemptions listed in the Act.

Does your organization make budget formulation and execution decisions that are well-defined and transparent?

New Research: Diversity + Inclusion = Better Decision Making At Work

John Sammarco on September 28, 2017

Every day there are more headlines about the challenges of workforce diversity. A focus on diversity often means a focus on hiring, and even with substantial investments of time and money, it takes years to turn the tide for companies with thousands of employees.

Bringing Group Decision Support into the 21st Century

John Sammarco on September 26, 2017

If time travel were possible, I’d like to go back and facilitate the boardroom decisions when Blockbuster passed on Netflix, when Excite passed on Google, or when Mars passed on placing its M&M product in movie E.T. These are a few of the biggest blunders in the history of business. I can’t help but wonder what their decision criteria was, whether they were accurately weighted to reflect their relative importance, and who, or more importantly who did not, provide their inputs.

Today, more than ever, organizations recognize the need for a structured and defined group decision-making process. One that can handle multiple decision criteria, numerous stakeholders, and a lengthy list of alternatives – and still be efficient and fast. A best-in-class process ensures that the decision criteria are accurately weighted, all key stakeholders are included, and that every alternative is fairly and consistently evaluated.

What is the Analytic Hierarchy Process?

The Analytics Hierarchy Process (AHP) was introduced in the 1970s by Thomas Saaty. It is now considered to be the world’s leading multi-criteria decision making methodology in the world, per Gartner Inc. It was developed to help work through complicated, real-world prioritization scenarios.

AHP is based on mathematics and psychology. It simplifies the process of weighting the decision criteria by comparing two criteria at a time (i.e., pairwise comparisons) to determine which is more important with respect to the decision goal – and by how much. Without AHP, decision-makers are left to simply guess their relative importance.

With accurately weighted decision criteria in-place, the feasible alternatives can then be evaluated and scored against each criterion. The result is a ranked order list of alternatives that summarizes the group’s knowledge and wisdom.

Do You Need a Group Decision Support Solution?

If your organization needs to build consensus and buy-in, and speed up the decision-making, then a group decision support solution is right for you. By utilizing the AHP methodology, a solution can remove the bias and guesswork from decision-making in many scenarios, including:

Budget Formulation – Choose the right investments and justify them to executive management.
Business Partner Selections – Know which partners make the most sense for your organization, based on your goals.
IT Demand Management – Screen ideas and evaluate concepts for new IT projects to ensure alignment with the business strategy.
Merger and Acquisition Selections – Identify, evaluate, and select companies that align with your business strategy.
Risk Assessments – Identify the greatest risks to your business, and optimize the allocation of resources to mitigate them.
Strategic Investment Selections – Evaluate every funding request, and streamline the review and approval process.
Vendor Selections – Conduct “protest-proof” best-value source selections and fully justify the decision.

How Definitive Pro™ Helps Organizations Make Faster, Better Decisions

The AHP methodology alone is not enough to move the decision-making process forward because the stakeholders who need to be involved in the decision-making process are often geographically dispersed, telecommuting, or on business travel when a decision needs to be made.

With this reality as our inspiration, we created Definitive Pro™ to bring group decision support into the 21^st century. Definitive Pro™ provides the AHP methodology, our proven business process, and our innovative anywhere, anytime, any device approach. Thus, decision participants can now use laptops, smartphones, or tablets to share their judgments – eliminating the need for them to be in the same room, at the same time. With such flexibility, there’s no reason to leave out key stakeholders who should be part of the consensus-building process.

Based on over 20 years of decision support expertise and best practices, Definitive Pro™ provides a world-class decision-making methodology that delivers consistency, transparency, and collaboration. It enables faster, better decisions, and allows stakeholders to stay engaged in the decision-making process – yielding a justifiable decision rationale.

Don’t Make the Next Big Business Blunder Possible

No one knows when the next the next big opportunity or risk will present itself. Don’t make the next big business blunder possible and have your business added to the list for generations to see. Be the champion in your organization for a world-class group decision-making process that taps into “the wisdom of the crowd”. Maybe you’ll be the Henry Ford, Katharine Meyer Graham, or Sam Walton of your organization.

Is your organization ready to make decisions in the 21^st century?

Innovation in Policy Analysis: AHP Applied to the Israeli–Palestinian Conflict

John Sammarco on September 22, 2017

Finance for Impact participated in a University of Pittsburgh seminar on conflict resolution. The originality of the session consisted in applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology to one of the most complex international crisis, the Israeli–Palestinian conflict and, in particular, the refugee issue.

Management Studies: Dishonesty Shift

John Sammarco on September 21, 2017

Lying comes more easily to people in teams: Behavioral scientists at Ludwig-Maximilians-Universitaet (LMU) in Munich have shown in an experimental study why groups are more likely to behave unethically than individuals.

Use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process for Medication Decision-Making in Type 2 Diabetes

John Sammarco on August 26, 2017

The study aim to investigate the feasibility and utility of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for medication decision–making in type 2 diabetes. The AHP is feasible and useful to make decisions about diabetes medications. Future studies which incorporate stakeholder preferences should evaluate other decision contexts, objectives, and treatments.